Role of Tourists on Emerging of Dengue Epidemic: Model Approach

Abstract

International travel is known as a factor that can contribute the increasing trend of dengue. It is still questioned on under what condition those travelers are able to underpin or diminish the transmission. In this study, we attempt to answer this question with the help of a mathematical model. The basic reproduction number is derived. An analysis showed that the tourists can contribute in epidemic only if the local transmission is closed to the threshold. We apply the analysis to dengue epidemic in Phuket, 2013 and showed that the tourists cannot contribute the emerging of dengue outbreak in that year.